Besley’s Lab
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Interactive notebook

Markov Blog Machine

How much of writing is just conditional probability over the last few words.

Generated

Order 2 — phrases start holding together. This is usually the sweet spot for sounding almost-human.

corpus 1,865 wordsvocabulary 755states 1,627avg. choices per state 1.15dead-certain states 91%

Trained on 2 published posts from this blog — the chain is built in your browser, from scratch, every time you move the slider. Watch the dead-certain states number as you raise the order: when most states have exactly one possible continuation, the model has stopped generalizing and started memorizing. That’s overfitting, visible in a single statistic — and it’s the same failure mode a language model has, just without the billions of parameters hiding it.