Besley’s Lab
Playable experiment

Bayesian Detective

Case 1 of 4

The Greenhouse Ledger

A rare seed ledger vanished during the evening watering round. Determine who removed it. Every test spends inquiry points, and you get one accusation.

Mara Vale

20.0%

A visiting botanist with temporary access.

Olin Reed

50.0%

The greenhouse keeper; usually alone after six.

Ves North

30.0%

An archivist who catalogued the ledger last week.

Look for evidence with very different likelihoods across suspects. Expensive evidence is not automatically useful; diagnostic spread is what moves the posterior.